BMS : Geert and Michel improve their BMS rating.

Geert (last year at BBD1).

Geert (last year at BBD1).

If you want to compete at the highest level, it is absolutely necessary to familiarize yourself with the dynamics of long matches.  Certain cube decisions can be pretty plain at a normal score, but can become quite sophisticated at scores like 12-away 5-away.  A player with no schooling in long matches will be like a 17th-century mariner on a nocturnal ocean without a compass.  Of course, if the skies are clear, he can navigate by the stars, but what if it’s cloudy? Experience with long matches is the compass without which you will be – and I weigh my words – completely helpless when faced with (re-)cube-decisions in, say, a 15-point match.

To become more acquainted with this subject matter, Geert and I have played another set of ten 15-point matches.  Here is how we did :

Geert's performance over ten 15-pointers.

Geert’s performance over ten 15-pointers (loses 3-7).

Michel's performance over ten 15-pointers.

Michel’s performance over ten 15-pointers (wins 7-3).

Once again we see that playing the checkers is not the issue.  Checker-plays do not differ much depending on score.  You can practise that aspect of the game as well in a 3-point match as in a 15-point match.  The cube is a different story, however.  Both Geert and I made some skilled cube decisions in our ten matches, but also messed it up way too often. Since  cube blunders tend to be  costly as far as equity goes, this has an extremely detrimental effect on our respective PRs.

En forgeant on devient forgeron, my father used to say.  It is now up to Geert and myself to review the matches we played, study our errors and blunders and hopefully gain some insight from that.

You can see  these performances reflected on the BMS Grading Table.  Just click on BMS(BE) in the black banner above.

M

 

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BBD2 : draw for Round 1.

DSC01120

Pairing of round 1 of BBD2 (100% random) :
1 Paulus Van Rooijen ( 0 ) – Johan Swyngedouw ( 0 )
2 Fakhri Salasi ( 0 ) – Geert Van der Stricht ( 0 )
3 Alain Chif ( 0 ) – Henri Pollet ( 0 )
4 Sassan Kachanian ( 0 ) – Bert Van Kerckhove ( 0 )
5 Marc Steyvers ( 0 ) – Akbar Soltani ( 0 )
6 Zsolt Tasnadi ( 0 ) – Luc Palmans ( 0 )
7 Paul Van Dijke ( 0 ) – Johan Brisaert ( 0 )
8 Nigel Vergaerde ( 0 ) – Dan Pascu ( 0 )
9 Johan Huyck ( 0 ) – Kristoffer De Weert ( 0 )
10 Leonidas Sotiriadis ( 0 ) – Johan Segers ( 0 )
11 Line Vandamme ( 0 ) – Eddy Cabooter ( 0 )
12 Isabelle Goeman ( 0 ) – Sofie Brisaert ( 0 )
13 Ronny Lecomte ( 0 ) – Maurits Pino ( 0 )

Note : the player mentioned first will have the clock on his/her right.  Bear-off is always towards the clock.

The defending champion : Johan Segers (right).

The defending champion : Johan Segers (right).

See you all on Saturday!

M

 

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4 Cubes 2016: Round 1 finished

The 4 Cubes 2016 Tournament Book has been updated.

Round 1

  • Leuven Cubers II – Leuven I : 8-1
  • Gent – Brussels : 4-5
  • Brugge : bye

Round 2

Round 2 is scheduled to take place in the third week of April:

  • Gent – Leuven Cubers II
  • Brugge – Leuven I
  • Brussels : bye.

The team captains of the four active teams are cordially invited to contact each other and confirm the playing date and venue.

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BBD2 : notice to all participants.

Boterkoeken at BBD

Boterkoeken at BBD

Hi everyone,

thank you all for joining BBD2.  We are looking forward to a fun day  of competitve backgammon.  Here are some practicalities :

1. Schedule.

9 – 10 : arrival : you will be welcomed by Line/Isabelle, who will give you 2 drankbonnen.  Upstairs in the playing room are 2 boterkoeken per person.

10 – 10.15 : seating at designated tables.

10.15 – 10.40 : player presentation.

10.45 : round 1.  Clocks are started.

18.45 : prize giving.

Please, be on time.  All matches start at the set times.

2. Boards.

Do not bring your own board to the venue.  You will not be able to use it.

3. Getting there.

Venue : De Hollandse Vismijn, Vismarkt, Brugge.

Coming by train is very convenient.  Buses will take you from the train station to the Vismarkt every 5 minutes.  You can also walk : from the station it takes about 20 minutes.

If you come by car, be aware that Saturday is market day in Brugge and that public parkings fill up quickly.  Allow for at least 45 minutes to get from the E40 (exit Oostkamp) to the venue. Your best bet is Parking Pandreitje (8,70€/day).  From there it is a 5 minute walk to the Hollandse Vismijn.  Cheaper is the parking at the train station : 3,50€/day.

4. BPR.

Players who will submit their matches as BPR clusters, need to announce their intention to do so beforehand.  To facilitate match filming, they will be given a fixed playing table where they can play all their matches.  They are urged to show up well before start of the tournament, so there is plenty of time to set up the recording equipment.

5. Draw.

The draw will be done on Wednesday 24 February, at 18.00.  It will be posted on this website later that evening, together with the designated table seating.

See you on Saturday!

M

 

 

 

 

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Four Cubes : Brussels win hard-fought battle in Gent : 4-5!

The 4 Cubes

The Four Cubes

If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster,

And treat those two impostors just the same…

To kick off the 2016 Four Cubes competition, Brussels  sent its elite troups to Gent.  Alain Chif (c), Maurits Pino and Zsolt Tasnadi arrived well on time to face the ambitious Ghent team : Geert Van der Stricht (c), Bert Van Kerckhove and Johan Huyck.

After 2 rounds of play, the score was tied : 3-3.  Then Maurits beat Johan and Bert beat Zsolt : 4-4.  All eyes now turned to the feature table, where the two captains had to fight it out.  It had all looked very promising for Ghent when Geert took a 6-3 lead.  Alain, however, was able to win the Crawford game and with the cube turned in the post-Crawford game, it looked as if it was all over :

Triumph...

What can possibly go wrong here? Have a look at the numbers :

Knipselfavourite

Alain will only lose this game 2 times in 1000 and will win a gammon (and the complete Four Cubes encounter for his team) 989 times in a 1000.  Many people would feel comfortable with these numbers on their side.  Not Alain though.  He had had a bad premonition in the morning, and this had been confirmed in his earlier matches against Bert and Johan, where almost-sure wins went awry.  If Geert comes in, the victory is assured, but … Geert rolls 32 and stays on the bar.  Alain then rolled 62, clearing the 3-point.  For Geert to dance, he would now have to roll 11,22 or 21. He rolls 11.  Ok, this sequence is nasty (the chance is about 1 in 40), but that happens in backgammon.  Now, however, with 3 men on the 2-point, Alain finds his 3rd consecutive 62, leaving a blot on the deuce… which Geert hits with a 32.  Gasps all around.  Alain is thrown back to enemy territory and has to try and scramble his way home through a mine-field.  He tries, but is hit several times and ends up being closed out.  Ok, the gammon is gone, but with 10 men off, Alain is still favourite to win the game (67%).  But Alain dances a couple of times and is suddenly a huge underdog.  Geert has about 81% chance here to win the encounter for Ghent :

geert at 80

For those of you who do not know what a swing is, well, this is one.  Alain went from 99,8% favourite to 19% underdog.  I am sure he experienced a sense of doom here, but, to his credit, he did not betray it.  At least not in histrionic fashion. Experienced backgammon players know these things can and will happen and they can keep their composure.  And, lo and behold, see what happens next :

Alain hits back

In his time of deepest despair, Alain is blessed with this affectionate caress by Lady Fortune.  It came so unexpected that Alain could hardly believe he could take 3 checkers off.  He did though, meticulously,  and so was catapulted back from 23% to 83%! Geert needed a double to win, but could not produce it and so the score was 6-6.

It is hard to describe the nerve-shredding effect these swings can have on a player’s psyche. We should not forget that Geert too had to undergo a horrific swing : he went from giant underdog (0,2%) to big favourite, only to see victory slip away.  Both captains kept their cool in exemplary fashion here.

Of course, everything remained to be played for in the DMP-game.  An unfortunate dance by Geert on a two-point board allowed Alain to convert a pretty hopeless blitz-attempt into a winning game-plan and so gain a precious victory for Brussels.  A decisive battle or a skirmish? Only the future will tell…

… you’ll be a Man… (R. Kipling)

 

M

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Maurits and Zsolt wrap up Autumn Series.

On 30 October 2015, in an office building in Brussels,  Maurits and Zsolt played the first of a series of ten 9-point matches.  They did so during the lunch break at their job, in a cramped room  where cleaning products, plastic buckets and dust brooms are stored. Hardly a worthy sporting arena, but adequate enough to play  backgammon.  In their eagerness to learn and improve, they recorded and transcribed the match and kept this up till they finished their Master Series (10 x 9) early February 2016.

Had they played for money, Zsolt would have made a nice profit, comfortably winning the Series 7-3. In this quasi academic format, however, where no pecuniary gain can be expected, players need not worry about the caprice of Lady Fortune, but instead can invest all their attention and mental energy in finding the optimal play.

Let us have a look at how they performed :

Autumn Series.  Overall PR Maurits Pino.

Autumn Series. Overall PR Maurits Pino.

Autumn Series. Overall PR Zsolt Tasnadi.

Autumn Series. Overall PR Zsolt Tasnadi.

Both played at Advanced level.  This, undeniably, is an achievement.  It takes hundreds of hours of study and practice to achieve this.  One can imagine though that they will both be slightly disappointed by these data. I imagine they would have secretly hoped for PRs in the range of 6,50-8,00.  The playing conditions can certainly count as extenuating factor.  It is hard to focus on the game if you have just stepped away from your desk and know that you will be heading back to your paperwork once the match is finished.  Still, I would  evaluate this performance as below par for players of their level.

As always, the performance gap lies in the cube actions.  Maurits did astonishingly well in this respect. A PR below 10 is almost unmatched in Belgium.  It would be too rash to conclude that we have a cube magus in our midst, but the feat is definitely praiseworthy. Zsolt, on the other hand, seems to have suffered significantly from the strained playing conditions.  I am in no position to speculate further on the cause of this débâcle, but I will certainly be excused for stating that Zsolt under-achieved here.  The positive side-effect is that any improvement in that area will boost Zsolt’s overall PR enormously.  His checker-play is close to Expert-level, so any normal cube performance should lift Zsolt’s game to the 6,50-8,00 Performance level.

Maurits (left) and Zsolt (right) on the 1st Brugge Backgammon Day.

Maurits (left) and Zsolt (right) on the 1st Brugge Backgammon Day.

By playing this Master Series, Maurits and Zsolt have gained a spot on the BMS Grading Table.  Kudos to both players!

You can find the BMS GT by clicking on BMS(BE) in the black banner above and scrolling down to Backgammon Master Series.

M

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Johan Huyck beats Geert VdS in high-level Winter Series 6-4.

In the course of a little under 3 months, Geert Van der Stricht and Johan Huyck played, recorded and transcribed ten 15-point matches.  These long matches are notoriously difficult as cube decisions can become very counter-intuitive at lopsided scores.  How did both players perform in this challenging format?

Well, honour where honour is due, let us start with Geert :

Geert dips below 6 on BMS Grading Table.

Geert dips below 6 on BMS Grading Table.

There can be no doubt that Geert is dexterous at checker-play : he played 8 matches at World Class level and the other 2 at Expert level.  However, whereas checker plays seldom deviate according to score, the cube decisions will alter dramatically once there is a 3- to 4-point gap in the score.  Mastering this aspect of the game requires in-depth knowledge of match equity tables, doubling-windows, gammon values, market-loss theory, and more of that fun stuff.  Here, Geert has work to do : in only 1 match was his cube play better than Advanced level. Still, an admirable performance by one of Belgium’s best.

Johan  is not known to many.  He studied and played the game intensively at the start of the 21st century, but then took a sabbatical break.  Now he’s back, encouraged and stimulated by the recent initiatives within the Belgian backgammon community, where the focus of attention has shifted  from winning to playing well.

Although Johan’s game is still a bit rusty, he still achieved a level of performance many will find hard to emulate :

Johan appears on the BMS Grading Table.

Johan H. appears on the BMS Grading Table.

Johan played 2 matches at an astonishing level : PRs of 3,39 and 3,34 serve to illustrate his potential.  However, these promising performances were sadly offset by matches where PRs rose above 8.  It cannot be a coincidence that these were the matches where Johan’s cube play was at its worst.  Although his checker play was consistently Expert or better, his cube decisions were frequently wide of the mark.  Like all of us, Johan has room for improvement here.  But, hey, would we play this game if it were easy?

With this result, Johan gains a spot on the BMS GT.  There has been some high-intensity jockeying for position on both the BMS and BPR tables.  You can check what is going on by clicking on BMS(BE) in the black banner above, and chosing either table in the scroll-down menu.

Congrats to both players for a commendable effort!

See you soon.

M

 

 

 

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The Rating Formula (Rating Update January 24, 2016)

In the most recent update of the rating list, Michel Lamote is the first player to have a rating higher than 1900. This is mostly symbolic of course, for the difference between 1895 and 1905 is the same as the difference between 1450 and 1460. Still, what does it mean to say that Michel’s rating is more than 400 points higher than average? The answer is given by the rating formula.

Rating Principle

The rating formula converts rating differences into match winning percentages. It underlies the computations needed to apply the rating principle. According to that principle, the number of rating points that Guy wins if he defeats Michel is proportional to his chances of losing the match. And if Guy would lose, his loss would be proportional to his chances of winning.

Sounds weird? Not at all. The more Guy is the underdog, the less he can lose and the more he can win. And the more Michel is the favourite, the less he can win and the more he can lose. Just fair, isn’t it?

Rating Formula

So how to know Guy’s chances to defeat his friend Michel? According to the rating formula, the odds depend on two things:

  1. the difference between both Guy’s and Michel’s ratings;
  2. the match length.

The exact formula is a mathematical curiosity founded in statistics and originating from chess. If you want to know more, check out the article Ratings on Backgammon Galore!.

The rating formula produces winning percentages as a function of the rating difference and the match length

What’s your probability of beating Michel? Calculate the difference between your rating and his (it’s probably negative), choose a match length, and read off the answer on the vertical axis. Click on the image to enlarge.

What it boils down to: a bigger rating difference means better chances for the favourite. The longer the match, the better for the favourite too.

See the picture on the left. (Click on it to enlarge.) Each line represents a match length. Calculate the difference between your own rating and your opponent’s. Find this value on the horizontal axis. On the curve representing your match length, find the point corresponding to that rating difference. Then read off the percentage on the vertical axis. That’s your match winning percentage.

Suppose for instance that Annie’s rating is 200 points higher than Bob’s. They play a 3-point match. Following the orange line, we find that Annie has about 60% chances of winning the match.

Long Run

Of course, all this is but a mathematical idealization. Ratings are volatile. If you have a lucky streak, your rating goes up. That doesn’t mean that your chances of winning future matches have suddenly gone up accordingly. Likewise if you’re having a bad week.

As a measure of your playing strength, your average rating over a period of time is probably a more accurate measure. (Even better is to analyze your matches by the merciless scalpel of the machine.)

So by all means, don’t take ratings too seriously. Don’t let them spoil the fun! If your rating goes up, great. If it goes down, just blame it on the dice and wait until the sun comes out again.

And now: go and check out your latest rating.

— JS

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Kopenhagen 2016 : BGFed.be plans to send strong team.

In September of last year, Belgium more than stood its ground in the European Backgammon Team Championship in Budapest.  Chances to qualify for the Final Four were real till the last encounter (versus Italy), but evaporated as Germany gained a freaky 4-0 victory over Denmark.  Below is a picture of the team that valiantly represented Belgium :

(from top left) Maurits, Walter, Alain, Guy and Luc. (from bottom left) Zsolt, Geert and Michel.

(from top left) Maurits, Walter, Alain, Guy and Luc.
(from bottom left) Zsolt, Geert and Michel.

This year, the EBTC will be hosted by Denmark.  It will take place in Kopenhagen.  At the most recent board meeting of BGFed.be, it was unanimously decided that Belgium will attend this prestigious event.  It was also agreed upon that, like last year, efforts should be made to delegate the strongest team possible.  The responsibility of implementing this policy was accorded to M.

1. Selection criteria.

Selection of players will be based predominantly on empirical data, i.e. conglomerate PR’s as reflected in both the BMSB GT and the BPR RT.

Since (a) skill in backgammon dominates as the match length increases and (b) the BMSB GT reflects PR’s obtained in longer matches, a higher weight will be given to BMSB gradings than to BPR gradings.

In the case that Candidate Players have no official BMSB or BPR grading, selection may be considered based on data available in the BMS Archive.

Should the difference in PR between two players be too close to call, factors like international experience with longer matches will be taken into account.

2. Selection procedure.

Candidacies must be submitted by e-mail (kynos8000@gmail.com) at the latest on 30 June 2016.

Candidate Players should :

a) be BGFed.be member and reside in Belgium,

b) demonstrably play at Advanced level or better,

c) have an official BMSB or BPR grading or be BIC-player.

A first list of Candidate Players will be posted on the BGFed.be website on 15 June 2016.

On 23 and 24 July 2016, a BMS tournament will be played to give Candidate Players an ultimate opportunity to improve their BMSB grading.  This tournament will be played in Brugge and will consist of six 13-point matches.

The final selection will be made once the performances in this event have been incorporated in the BMSB GT.

M

 

 

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2nd Brugge Backgammon Day fully booked.

Boterkoeken at BBD

Boterkoeken at BBD1

Brugge BC is happy to announce that the 26-player field for BBD2 is now complete.  The following players registered : Henri Pollet, Geert Van der Stricht, Johan Segers, Bert Van Kerckhove, Johan Huyck, Johan Swyngedouw, Sassan Kachanian, Luc Palmans, Isabelle Goeman, Line Vandamme, Peter Allemeersch, Zsolt Tasnadi, Marc Steyvers, Paul van Dijke, Paulus van Rooijen, Akbar Soltani, Fakhri Soltani, Johan Brisaert, Sofie Brisaert, Kristoffer De Weert, Alain Chif, Leonidas Sotiriadis, Dan Pascu, Eddy Cabooter, Ronny Lecomte en Maurits Pino.

In case you are not on this list, but would still be interested in taking part, you can send me an e-mail (kynos8000@gmail.com).  I will contact you should there be a drop-out.

Thanks to all players for registering so promptly.  More detailed information will appear on this website on Friday 12 February 2016 at noon.

Line, Peter and Michel

Brugge Backgammon Club
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